Not surprising that the mutual funds industry continues to record redemptions to the benefit of ETFs ( US$ 600 Bn last year )
The experts say that this is due to the fees charged by active funds.
We strongly disagree. The dispersion of the performance across stocks is large enough to offer opportunities to beat the benchmarks and achieve consistent superior performance from smart active managers.
In 2017 the SP500 returned around 20%. But the top 20% performers gained on average 61% and the bottom 20% produced a negative -9%. Performance dispersion is a recurring fact year after year – see our 20 years analysis for key markets:
Superior performance on a consistent basis comes from the ability to be in synchrony with major price trends.
Capturing a large part of bull trends and avoiding most of the bear trends in individual stocks and sectors over different market cycles is the essence of successful investing.
But in order to capture the positive trends and ideally some of the big winners, while avoiding a number of the losers one must understand and accept the fact that a robust, objective and disciplined trend analysis is required.
Fundamentals alone cannot effectively capture trends and the SPIVA statistics confirm this reality.
A simple overlay of “trend capture analysis” can be a precious complement to most investment strategies as it helps the fund manager to be more in synchrony with key trends on individual stocks and sectors.
Our “Trend Capture Rating“ provides a new metric to objectively measure the direction and quality of price trends. The rating (A,B,C,D) can be used to validate ideas and spot risks. OUR MODELS ARE DESIGNED TO SELF-ADJUST TO MARKET CONDITIONS AND USE ADAPTIVE TIME WINDOWS TO SPOT TRENDS SOONER THAN OTHER STATIC MODELS. The result is a faster identification of trends and reversals than the standard momentum models. This is why we call our solution “Smart Momentum “.
Below are examples that show how it is possible to maximize a fund’s performance by overlaying a simple “Trend Capture Analysis“.
Oppenheimer Capital Appreciation Fund (OTCYX) – Trend Capture Overlay
Templeton Global X USD – Trend Capture Overlay
Ancora Small-Midcap Fund (AATIX) – Trend Capture Overlay
JPMorgan US Large Cap Core Plus Fund (JLPSX) – Trend Capture Overlay
Fidelity Advisor Capital Development Fund (FDEIX) – Trend Capture Overlay
Carillon Eagle Growth and Income Fund (HRCVX) – Trend Capture Overlay
Dreyfus Active Midcap Fund (DNLRX) – Trend Capture Overlay
BlackRock Advantage Large Cap Growth Fund(CMVIX) – Trend Capture Overlay