Value Evidence

Documenting with hard evidence the edge we offer to active portfolio managers

Price trends exposure is the driver of performance. Acknowledging and respecting trends is the essence of successful investing. Dismissing the importance of validating and discriminating medium term trends across any chosen investment universe is the main reason behind the underperformance of many funds (SPIVA statistics). Trendrating founders have expertise in developing models that dates back to the ‘90s.

We offer a unique methodology to rate the direction and quality of medium-term price trends, using a multi-factor pattern recognition algorithm, that is self-adjusted to volatility changes. Our trend discovery model provides a rating metric to discriminate bull vs. bear trends and to spot in time trend reversals across stocks with reasonable accuracy, as extensively documented here. Investors can spot new risks and opportunities by monitoring the downgrades and upgrades across 17,000 stocks, 3,600 ETFs and 330 indices.

This additional market intelligence is a powerful complement to most investment strategies and fills a critical gap – the difficulty to objectively measure the true direction and quality of individual trends, filtering out all the noise. We serve 200+ premier institutions on a global scale and our rating analytics have been selected by partners like Bloomberg and Euronext. Bull trends are identified by a positive rating (A and B). Bear phases are captured by a negative rating (C and D). Upgrades and downgrades signal trend reversals and are notified via alerts.

Here we document the accuracy of our proprietary rating model, to prove the advantage that can be extracted profiting from the performance dispersion in the market.

Market Facts

The Performance Dispersion across stocks offers great opportunities for active managers.

Trendrating provides a new level of market intelligence to maximize the performance of any investment strategy.

A and B rated stocks tend to outperforms those rated C and D on average.

Below you find the analysis of all A and B rated stocks vs. those rated C and D, with the contribution in terms of performance divided per quartiles.

All the upgrades and downgrades exposed below have been delivered in real time to our clients via the data feed and the systems we offer.


US Market Analysis – Large Cap Stocks Investment Universe – 700 securities

Data below as of January 31, 2024

Tables of outperformers vs. underperformers (Some examples)

Charts of outperformers vs. underperformers (More examples)

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